Countervailing measures are there:
- forecasts like the above seem rational, but the insurance industry doesn't act rationally
- the economic implosion reduces exposures and it's hard to raise the top line when demand shrinks
Speaking of the credit crisis, Mr. Degnan thought the "hyperbolic forecasts" of big losses were way overblown. Citing high dismissal rates and other measures he discussed in Chubb's last earnings call, Mr. Degnan thought the $10, 15 20b numbers are overblown. Was he subtly asking Advisen to revise its forecast?
In the Q&A he was asked about direct distribution and said it had been seriously reviewed at Chubb but Chubb is "strongly committed" to working with brokers who provide a significant "value add".